U.S. House Of Representatives Projections Updated: GOP Moves Up To +64

From Freedom's Lighthouse:



U.S. House Projections Updated: GOP Moves Up to +64


In this afternoon’s update of our U.S. House Projections, we now have the GOP set for a 64-seat net gain in the upcoming Midterm Elections. That is an increase of three seats from yesterday’s update, the result of us moving four “tossup” races into the GOP column, and one “tossup” to the Democrats.



Race Rating Changes since last update:



GA2 = “Tossup” to “GOP Gain”



OR5 = “Tossup” to “GOP Gain”



HI1 = “Tossup” to “Dem Gain”



CT4 = “Tossup” to “GOP Gain”



CT5 = “Tossup” to “GOP Gain”



The 64-seat projected net gain is our largest so far. There seems to be some movement toward the GOP in these closing days of the campaign. We’ll have to see if that continues through the weekend, or if it begins to move back toward the Democrats in the last four days. With 33 races still rated as a “tossup,” the further potential for GOP gains is really staggering. Republicans need a net gain of 39-seats to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. A gain of more than 39-seats is now virtually assured.



Check out all of our projections for the 148 races we list as “competitive races.”



2010 Competitive U.S. House Races – Projections




Updated: 10/29/10 – 3:15 PM CT



Current

179

256

GOP



Projected

243

192

+64



District

Republican

Democrat

Projection



AK – AL

*Don Young

Harry Crawford Jr.

GOP Hold



AL – 2

Martha Roby

*Bobby Bright

GOP Gain



AL – 5 (incumbent Griffith defeated in primary)

*Mo Brooks

Steve Raby

GOP Hold



AZ – 1

Paul Gosar

*Ann Kirkpatrick

GOP Gain



AZ – 3 (Open)

*Ben Quayle

Jon Hulburd

GOP Hold



AZ – 5

Dave Schweikert

*Harry Mitchell

GOP Gain



AZ – 7

Ruth McClung

*Raul Grijalva

Tossup



AZ – 8

Jesse Kelly

*Gabrielle Giffords

GOP Gain



AR – 1 (Open)

Rick Crawford

*Chad Causey

GOP Gain



AR – 2 (Open)

Tim Griffin

*Joyce Elliot

GOP Gain



AR – 4

Beth Anne Rankin

*Mike Ross

Dem Hold



CA – 3

*Dan Lungren

Amerish Bera





GOP Hold



CA – 11

David Harmer

*Jerry McNerney

GOP Gain



CA – 18

Mike Berryhill

*Dennis Cardoza

Tossup



CA – 20

Andy Vidak

*Jim Costa

GOP Gain



CA – 44

*Ken Calvert

Bill Hedrick

GOP Hold



CA – 45

*Mary Bono Mack

Steve Pougnet

GOP Hold



CA – 47

Van Tran

*Loretta Sanchez

Tossup



CA – 50

*Brian Bilbray

Francine Busby

GOP Hold



CO – 3

Scott Tipton

*John Salazar

GOP Gain



CO – 4

Cory Gardner

*Betsy Markey

GOP Gain



CO – 7

Ryan Frazier

*Ed Perlmutter

Tossup



CT – 1

Ann Brickley

*John Larson

Dem Hold



CT – 2

Janet Peckinpaugh

*Joe Courtney

Dem Hold



CT – 4

Dan Debicella

*Jim Himes

GOP Gain



CT – 5

Sam Caligiuri

*Chris Murphy

GOP Gain



DE – AL (Open)

*Glen Urquhart





John Carney Jr.

Dem Gain



FL – 2

Steve Southerland

*Allen Boyd

GOP Gain



FL – 8

Dan Webster

*Alan Grayson

GOP Gain



FL – 12 (Open)

*Dennis Ross

Lori Edwards

GOP Hold



FL – 13

*Vern Buchanan

James Golden

GOP Hold



FL – 16

*Tom Rooney

Jim Horn

GOP Hold



FL – 22

Allen West

*Ron Klein

GOP Gain



FL – 24

Sandy Adams

*Susan Kosmas

GOP Gain



FL – 25 (Open)

*David Rivera

Joe Garcia

GOP Hold



GA – 2

Mike Keown

*Sanford Bishop

GOP Gain



GA – 8

Austin Scott

*Jim Marshall

GOP Gain



GA – 12

Raymond McKinney

*John Barrow

Tossup



HI – 1

*Charles Djou

Colleen Hanabusa

Dem Gain



ID – 1

Raul Labrador

*Walter Minnick

Tossup



IL – 8

Joe Walsh

*Melissa Bean

Tossup



IL – 10 (Open)

*Robert Dold

Daniel Seals

Tossup



IL – 11

Adam Kinzinger

*Debbie Halvorson

GOP Gain



IL – 14

Randy Hultgren

*Bill Foster

GOP Gain



IL – 17

Bobby Schilling

*Phil Hare

GOP Gain



IN – 2

Jackie Walorski

*Joe Donnelly

Tossup



IN – 8 (Open – Ellsworth seat)

Dr. Larry Bucshon

*Trent Van Haaften

GOP Gain



IN – 9

Todd Young

*Baron Hill

GOP Gain



IA – 1

Ben Lange

*Bruce Braley

Tossup



IA – 2

M. Miller-Meeks

*David Loebsack

Dem Hold



IA – 3

Brad Zaun

*Leonard Boswell

Tossup



KS – 3 (Open)

Kevin Yoder

*Stephene Moore

GOP Gain



KS – 4 (Open)

*Mike Pompeo

Raj Goyle

GOP Hold



KY – 3

Todd Lally

*John Yarmuth

Tossup



KY – 6

Andy Barr

*Ben Chandler

Tossup



LA – 2

*Joseph Cao

Cedric Richmond

Dem Gain



LA – 3 (Open)

Jeff Landry

*Ravi Sangisetty

GOP Gain



ME – 1

Dean Scontras

*Chellie Pingree

Tossup



MD – 1

Andy Harris

*Frank Kratovil, Jr.

GOP Gain



MA – 4

Sean Bielat

*Barney Frank

Dem Hold



MA – 5

Jon Golnik

*Niki Tsongas

Dem Hold



MA – 6

Bill Hudak

*John Tierney

Dem Hold



MA – 10 (Open – Delahunt retiring)

Jeff Perry

*William Keating





Tossup



MI – 1 (Open, Stupak Retiring)

Dr. Daniel Benishek

*Gary McDowell

GOP Gain



MI – 7

Tim Walberg

*Mark Shauer

GOP Gain



MI – 9

Andrew Raczkowski

*Gary Peters

Tossup



MI – 15

Rob Steele

*John Dingell

Dem Hold



MN – 1

Randy Demmer

*Tim Walz

Dem Hold



MN – 6

*Michele Bachmann

Tarryl Clark

GOP Hold



MN – 8

Chip Cravaack

*Jim Oberstar

Dem Hold



MS – 1

Alan Nunnelee

*Travis Childers

GOP Gain



MS – 4

Steven Palazzo

*Gene Taylor

GOP Gain



MO – 3

Ed Martin

*Russ Carnahan

Dem Hold



MO – 4

Vicky Hartzler

*Ike Skelton

Tossup



MO – 5

Jacob Turk

*Emanuel Cleaver

Dem Hold



ND – AL

Rick Berg

*Earl Pomeroy

GOP Gain



NE – 2

*Lee Terry

Tom White

GOP Hold



NV – 3

Dr. Joseph Heck

*Dina Titus

GOP Gain



NH – 1

Frank Guinta

*Carol Shea-Porter

GOP Gain



NH – 2 (Open)

Charles Bass

*Ann Kuster

GOP Gain



NJ – 3

John Runyan

*John Adler

GOP Gain



NJ – 6

Anna Little

*Frank Pallone

Tossup



NJ – 12

Scott Sipprelle

*Rush Holt

Dem Hold



NM – 1

Jon Barela

*Martin Heinrich

Tossup



NM – 2

Steve Pearce

*Harry Teague

GOP Gain



NM – 3

Tom Mullins

*Ben Ray Lujan

Dem Hold



NY – 1

Randy Altschuler

*Tim Bishop

Tossup



NY – 4

Fran Becker

*Carolyn McCarthy

Tossup



NY – 13

Mike Grimm

*Mike McMahon

Tossup



NY – 19

Nan Hayworth

*John Hall

GOP Gain



NY – 20

Chris Gibson

*Scott Murphy

GOP Gain



NY – 22

George Phillips

*Maurice Hinchey

Dem Hold



NY – 23

Matthew Doheny



(Doug Hoffman on ballot as Conservative Party nominee, but campaign suspended; calls on supporters to vote for Doheny)

*Bill Owens

GOP Gain



NY – 24

Richard Hanna

*Michael Arcuri

Tossup



NY – 25

Ann Marie Buerkle

*Dan Maffei

Tossup



NY – 27

Leonard Roberto

*Brian Higgins

Dem Hold



NY – 29 (Open – Eric Massa resigned)

Thomas Reed

*Matthew Zeller

GOP Gain



NC – 2

Renee Elmers

*Bob Etheridge

GOP Gain



NC – 7

Ilario Pantano

*Mike McIntyre

Tossup



NC – 8

Harold Johnson

*Larry Kissell

GOP Gain



NC – 11

Jeff Miller

*Heath Shuler

Tossup



OH – 1

Steve Chabot

*Steve Driehaus

GOP Gain



OH – 2

*Jean Schmidt

Surya Yalamanchili

GOP Hold



OH – 6

Bill Johnson

*Charlie Wilson

GOP Gain



OH – 12

*Patrick Tiberi

Paula Brooks

GOP Hold



OH – 13

Thomas Ganley

*Betty Sue Sutton

Dem Hold



OH – 15

Steve Stivers

*Mary Jo Kilroy

GOP Gain



OH – 16

Jim Renacci

*John Boccieri

GOP Gain



OH – 18

Bob Gibbs

*Zack Space

GOP Gain



OK – 2

Charles Thompson

*Dan Boren

Dem Hold



OR – 1

Rob Cornilles

*David Wu

Dem Hold



OR – 4

Art Robinson

*Pete DeFazio

Dem Hold



OR – 5

Scott Bruun

*Kurt Schrader

GOP Gain



PA – 3

Mike Kelly





*Kathy Dahlkemper

GOP Gain



PA – 4

Keith Rothfus

*Jason Altmire

Dem Hold



PA – 6

*Jim Gerlach

Manan Trivedi

GOP Hold



PA – 7 (Open – Sestak Senate)

Patrick Meehan

*Bryan Lentz

GOP Gain



PA – 8

Mike Fitzpatrick

*Patrick Murphy

GOP Gain



PA – 10

Tom Marino

*Chris Carney

GOP Gain



PA – 11

Lou Barletta

*Paul Kanjorski

GOP Gain



PA – 12 (Special – Murtha Death)





Tim Burns





*Mark Critz





GOP Gain



PA – 15

*Charlie Dent

John Callahan

GOP Hold



PA – 17

David Argall

*Tim Holden

Dem Hold



RI – 1 (Patrick Kennedy retiring)





John Loughlin, II





*David Cicilline





Tossup



SC – 1 (Open)

*Tim Scott

Ben Frasier

GOP Hold



SC – 5

Mick Mulvaney

*John Spratt

GOP Gain



SD – AL

Kristi Noem

*S. Herseth-Sandlin

GOP Gain



TN – 4

Dr. Scott DesJarlais

*Lincoln Davis

GOP Gain



TN – 5

David Hall

*Jim Cooper

Dem Hold



TN – 6 (Open)

Diane Black

*Brett Carter

GOP Gain



TN – 8 (Open)

Stephen Fincher

*Roy Herron

GOP Gain



TX – 17

Bill Flores

*Chet Edwards

GOP Gain



TX – 23

Francisco “Quico” Canseco

*Ciro Rodriguez

GOP Gain



TX – 27

Blake Farenthold

*Solomon Ortiz

Tossup



VA – 2

Scott Rigell

*Glenn Nye

GOP Gain



VA – 5

Robert Hurt

*Tom Perriello

GOP Gain



VA – 9

Morgan Griffith

*Rick Boucher

Tossup



VA – 11

Keith Fimian

*Gerald Connolly

Tossup



WA – 2

John Koster

*Rick Larsen

Tossup



WA – 3 (Open)

Jaime Herrera

*Denny Heck

GOP Gain



WA – 6

Doug Cloud

*Norm Dicks

Dem Hold



WA – 8

*Dave Reichert

Suzan DelBene

GOP Hold



WA – 9

Dick Muri

*Adam Smith

Tossup



WV – 1 (Dem inc. district – Inc. Mollohan defeted)

David McKinley





*Michael Olivario, II

GOP Gain



WV – 3

Elliot Maynard

*Nick Joe Rahall, II

Dem Hold



WI – 3

Dan Kapanke

*Ronald Kind

Tossup



WI – 7 (OPEN – David Obey Retiring)

Sean Duffy

*Julie Lassa

GOP Gain



WI – 8

Reid Ribble

*Steve Kagen

GOP Gain



TOTALS







148 Competitive House Races





24 GOP Seats





124 Dem Seats

GOP Gain – 67



Dem Gain – 03



Tossup – 33



Net GOP Gain



+64